GLOBAL ECONOMY / 3 min read
Before the numbers,
understand the context.
Growth and inflation. Policy and markets. Place one indicator within a connected picture.
An indicator is the start of a question
When looking at employment or inflation data, the size of the number is only one consideration. Ask what has changed from the previous observation, how the result compares with expectations, and whether other indicators point in the same direction.
Look at growth and inflation together
A rise in interest rates can reflect stronger growth expectations, inflation pressure or changing risk compensation. Look at both the level and direction of growth and inflation, then connect them to financial conditions and policy responses.
Define what would change your mind
Write down your base scenario and the observations that would lead you to revise it. When new information arrives, this helps you update assumptions rather than defend an existing opinion.
Connected insight. Better decisions.
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